Wednesday, 3 April 2013

The Final Stretch and the National

Into April we roll and there are only 7 or 8 Premier League matches for us to enjoy before we have to succumb to other sports over the summer months. The weekend had a small impact on the league, with Chelsea dropping points, Southampton claiming a huge win and Wigan shaping up to form another great escape. QPR now look resigned to the Championship after their 3-2 loss at Fulham made them 1.11 for the drop, only behind Reading who now sit 1.06 after their defeat at the Emirates. The top four race continues to enthrall and Chelsea, Spurs and Arsenal now sit within 4 points of each other, while Arsenal and Chelsea have a crucial game in hand. Chelsea and Spurs still need to play each other but due to the former's triumph in the FA cup that game will now be pushed back, meaning Spurs will have a potentially crucial free week allowing for a much needed rest for their squad. Spurs were the big winners over the weekend as they moved up to third and the market readjusted to make them 1.76 for a top four finish.

Looking at the fixtures over April you would have to look at opposing Chelsea in every way. They potentially face 8 fixtures throughout April, possibly more if they progress in the Europa League, and Benitez looks to be prioritising the cup competitions over the league, as was the case with Di Matteo last season. I backed Arsenal for the top 3 last week at 4.4 (now 3.3), but you can lay Chelsea for the top 3 at 2.34 or even the top 4 at 1.49 if you wish. Incidentally, Arsenal could also benefit from United winning the title quickly, as it might take United's edge off their fixture at the Emirates at the end of April. At this stage of the season it is tempting to force bets, in an attempt to make more money before the season finishes, particularly as I am not on track to reach my profit target. It is clear however that doing this could jeapardise the profits I already have and a large amount of discipline is necessary here to resist rising greed.

Elsewhere we have the Grand National this Saturday which I will be attending as usual, I just hope the weather picks up before then! Unfortunately this is not an occasion which bookmakers offer free bets as they do not feel as if they need to, while some even withdraw or reduce their sign up bonus, meaning I will have to be digging into my pocket to pay for my punts. I know little about horses as it is and the National is renowned for being a lottery, so I won't bother trying to 'analyse' the race and give you all my 'tips'. If you are interested however, I'm going for Colbert Station at around 15/1. He's a dead cert ; )

Enjoy the race and I hope some of you get lucky. Fingers crossed for no more snow.

1 comment:

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