Saturday, 19 May 2012

Managerial Problems

The biggest news this week has been the managerial dogfights between each of the managerless clubs, and I have been trying to take advantage of it. Ordinarily I would never bet on these markets, due to it being nothing but pure speculation usually, but my interest was peaked a couple of days ago as a news story was released on Twitter (by, so thanks to them for that) that Roberto Martinez had been given permission to talk to Liverpool. The price was about 6.5 for him to be next Liverpool manager when I checked, but it was naturally dropping fast. I managed to get £133 on at average odds of 5.668 before they were chopped down to 2s. At this point I was loving life but I didn't really know at what time I should trade out. I'm not too experienced in these markets so I wasn't quite sure at what point the odds would stop shortening, and to my detriment I left it slightly too long. The odds went as low as around 2.16 and I had the chance to trade out there, but I let it go slightly too long and they began to bounce back up again, presumably because all the people who got on him at high odds were now trading out. I became slightly unnerved by the drift and took a higher price of around 2.84, leaving me with a tidy £108 on each outcome. It could have been more but for a one off trade that really isn't too bad. I will know more about the market next time and will make more.

Buoyed by the Martinez success however, I decided to put some money on Solskjaer to become the Villa manager when he was sitting at 1.9, after hearing a few reports that he was on the radar. This time however, I made the fatal error of not trading out when it hit 1.5, as I thought that if he had taken the time to come all the way to England, surely he must be pretty interested? Well, that isn't how it panned out and there was a lot of pure speculation flying around, making it difficult for anyone to know the true story. I panicked somewhat, and attempted to reverse the trade when the odds went above evens, leaving liability on Ole, rather than backing him. The odds bounced about and I got into a real mess really, backing and laying all over the place, until a couple of hours ago when it was said that he was staying at Molde, and I layed him at around 4 before he flew up to 10s. Due to the messing about beforehand though, this didn't leave me with any profit, just a break even scenario on each side, but to be honest I was just thankful to get my money out of that hellhole. I was very lucky on this occasion to come out of it unscathed, so next time I will know not to mess about in those situations. I had the ton from Martinez and I will settle with that.

The past couple of days have shown both the positive and negative sides of Twitter as a tool for trading. In some cases it can be extremely handy, as shown with the Martinez case, and if you're quick enough you can get your bets in before the market reacts properly, although it is very hard. On the other hand though, it can be extremely volatile. Rumours bounce around at a stupid rate, and although you just have to follow those who are 'in the know' i.e. the top journalists not Tom, Dick or Harry, it is hard to not let your opinion be influenced by a vast amount of similar rumours. It is tough, but it is something that can be effective if you can balance it correctly. As I said before I won't be having any bets today, just going to sit back and enjoy the ride. And also a nice appearance from Frankel to top it off.

Enjoy your weekend.

Wednesday, 16 May 2012

What a season

Evening all, what an incredible season we have just witnessed, I for one am very sad it has come to an end. As a United fan I didn't take too kindly to the events on Sunday, but we move on and I congratulate City on a fantastic achievement. My thoughts on that matter can be viewed in greater depth over on my other blog (, so here I will just be talking about my betting results. Due to the traditional nature in which all of the games were played at the same time on Sunday, I didn't really have time to trade many of them, as I was busy watching United and don't really like to trade when they are playing. I made a small loss on the Arsenal game but that was about it. I did however, lay United to win the title at 1.36 for £25 when Dzeko equalised in the 92nd minute. I only really did this as I had a small green on United, so I sacrificed that and luckily it paid off. Had there been more liquidity (and time), I would have evened out my profit on the straight forecast market, as I had £170 on United-City but only £115 on City-United, but at least I managed to make a bit extra on the outright bet. Total amount from the settlement of the long-term markets was £158.96, in addition to the money from the Best of the Rest market reported last week, so not too bad at all. I posted a long long time ago (back at the start of the season) that I had an each way lucky 15 bet on outright winners of the Prem, Championship, League 1 and 2. I staked £15 on Man Utd, West Ham, Huddersfield and Oxford Utd (?!?!) each to win their league, none of which did, and I was returned £3.70. A minor loss but for the enjoyment it has given me over the year it is well worth it and I will be having another fun bet like this next year. Be sure to look out for my selections so you can avoid them ; )

Not much else to report here except for the fact that my P+L has breached £1000 for the first ever time, as you can see on the right. This may not seem like masses to some of you, but I am extremely happy with this, especially as a small-time trader with small targets, and besides, I'm still only 20 years old. This has been my first full year of trading and it has been thoroughly enjoyable, and I will be posting a full review of the season soon. I have no real angles on Saturday's big game, except maybe a small punt on the Drog to score, but I am already beginning to look forward to the Euros and preparing my bets for what could be a firecracker. Enjoy your week people, I hope you enjoy the final on Saturday.