Saturday, 30 July 2011

Tips for Sunday

I probably won't be using my whole 86p bankroll tomorrow as I did today, but I will still have a small flutter on these tips:

Tip one:

Norwegian Tippligaen - Stabeck vs Start 5pm BST
I will take a very small stake on this match going over 1.5 goals, but only after 15 minutes. The odds at the mo are 1.18 which are distinctly unimpressive, so if it is goalless at 15 minutes I will take that price.

Tip two:

Swedish Allsvenskan - Helsingborgs vs IFK Goteburg 3.30pm BST
I will again wait 15 minutes before betting on this game. After that time I will lay 0-0 as a half time score. I am not so confident of the over 1.5 goals so will leave that for today.

The nature of my bets means that I could end up not betting at all tomorrow, but after a successful Saturday I am not so bothered, (also because I am not as certain about these bets). I had two further selections from Finland but have just discovered that Betfair doesn't offer a 1.5 goals market for the games, so I will not be betting on these.

I considered betting on Formula 1, but as it is so unpredictable (my record from last 2 races is 1 significant loss, 1 profit) I prefer to stay out of it and just enjoy the race.

Whatever you bet on tomorrow I hope you have a good day.

Successful Saturday.. onto Super Sunday?

It was a great Saturday today for me as all my bets came in. At one point it was all a little tight but it worked out in the end thankfully. Here is the write up of today's bets:

Bet one - J-League (Japan) - Iawata vs G-Osaka over 1.5 goals @ 1.26.
Pre kick off the odds were at an abysmal 1.13, so I left it for 15 minutes allowing for them to drift to 1.26, a very good price for such a certainty (in my opinion). Didn't bother laying it as I didn't see the need. Goals came in, story over.

Bet two - J-League - Yokohoma FM vs Omiya over 1.5 goals @ 1.36.
This bet was not quite so smooth due to the problem I outlined before the game - that they weren't as prolific as they could be. I chose to back them before the game in order to lay after the first goal, however the first goal took a while to come and the price had drifted too far for my liking. I got lucky in that it was the away team who scored, meaning the price was slightly lower, and I bailed out with a lay of 1.24 for a small profit. As it happens, the game went over 2.5 goals but I wasn't waiting around for that. In future, if teams have a first half goals bias, I will lay 0-0 half time score instead. Lesson learnt. 

Bet three - Norwegian Tippligaen - Molde vs Valerenga 5pm over 1.5 goals @ 1.2.
I was so sure of this bet that I took a risk in reinvesting my profit from the morning into this game. I didn't bother to trade out at any time as the price was so low. My extra tip of over 2.5 goals also came in, though not for a very long time, meaning my plan of backingtolay was fruitless. Unfortunately for me, I bailed out for a small loss around the hour mark, two minutes before the second goal, but c'est la vie. Any losses incurred from this had already been covered anyway, as I included an extra extra bet following my lesson from the Yokohoma game. I chose to lay 0-0 half time score @ 4.4, which came in after giving me a nice scare (44th minute goal).

So a good weekend in all and a few lessons learnt too, which is always handy. As the English season hasn't started yet I haven't been betting in huge amounts and have been mainly using the money from the 86p fund. These trades, along with a few successful trades/scalps in the Rangers match leaves me on a total of £208.52 - not bad indeed. (Approximate points profit was 13.7 for the day).

I will post some tips for tomorrow in a bit. 

Friday, 29 July 2011

Tips Tips Tips

Tonight was a successful trade as Crawley won 3-2, and after an early goal I traded out at 1.14. Tomorrow I have three big tips from the over 1.5 goals market. I will do them all as singles and look to trade as usual after the first goal.

Tip one:

J-League (Japan) - Iawata vs G-Osaka 11am BST
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.16 (appalling odds, I will probably wait ten minutes or so before I back, so hopefully there are no early goals - might not bother trading though)

Tip two:

J-League - Yokohoma FM vs Omiya 11am BST
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.37 (odds are higher as these two teams are not as prolific as the two above. They do, however, have a tendency to score in the first half, so I will do this specifically to trade)

Tip three:

Norwegian Tippligaen - Molde vs Valerenga 5pm BST
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.23 (Backtolay as there has been a goal before half time in every game these two have played this season. May even back over 2.5 goals as an extra at 1.63, specifically for the backtolay)

Whatever you do this weekend have a good'un. Night.

Tip for tonight...

I have a few bets lined up for the weekend in the over 1.5 goals market mainly which I think are going to be real money makers, but I will post them tomorrow. Today I only have one selection -

Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon 7.45 PM BST 
Over 1.5 goals @ 1.3

I will probably wait a few minutes into the game before I bet on it, just to give the price a small chance to drift, as every little helps. After the first goal I will look to trade out. As this is a cup competition I feel that both teams should be more interested than they would be in a measly friendly, it is also a good chance for them to test out their new players.

Good luck and have a good evening.

Thursday, 28 July 2011

Night off and looking forward to the new season

I haven't really found any games that I fancy tonight, not really a fan of early champo/europa qualifiers so I'll leave it be for now. The treble from last night was pretty dire, just as well I didn't bet on it. 2/3 but only just. I don't think I really had enough to go on to be honest and I'm not really going to count that in my research.
The 86p fund grew briefly yesterday before returning back to around where it was before. Frankel had put me up to around £140, but a bet of under 3.5 goals in the Lille-Marseille game put me back to £110. I have a tenner on Rory this week so I'm sitting on £100 precisely as it stands. The French bet was slightly annoying as usually that bet is taylor-made for games in France. Losing the bet, however, was soon forgotten amidst the mayhem that erupted from nowhere. 3-1 Lille in the 85th minute went to 5-4 Marseille in the 90th. When things like that happen I don't mind losing my bet quite as much.
Today I have been having a look at bets for the new season and I now cannot wait for it to begin. I'm still working but the most appealing one so far is laying Arsenal to succeed this season. I definitely don't think that they will muster a title challenge, but I also find it hard to envisage them making the top 3 or maybe even 4. At a lay price of 2.94 to make the top 3, and 1.8 to make the top 4, I might just have a small tinker. In addition to this, Arsenal have an extremely difficult first month with Newcastle (A), Liverpool (H), Man Utd (A). I think it's quite feasible that they could not win any of those first three games, which would see their top 3/4 prices drift significantly (opening up a lay opportunity). (I have added a picture of Arsene for those who don't know what he looks like. Fine figure of a man. Often angry these days.)

At 9.6 I have also been interested in 'Chicharito' for top scorer as a back2lay option. He is settled in England after a fantastic first season. He is first choice at United and will probably continue to play with Rooney sitting behind him gifting him chances. After a few goals I reckon that he could make some distance between himself and the rest of the pack, and would then be perfect for laying. Other options for a possible EW bet are Odemwingie, Ba and Gyan, but I'm still looking at those. Darren Bent (4.9) for top English goalscorer is very appealing.
Obviously all the bets I am looking at are based on the CURRENT squads, and I wouldn't dare make these bets before seeing who is bought. There are a number of high profile names still to make a decision such as Nasri, Fabregas, Drogba, Tevez, Berbatov, Modric, Sneijder, Pastore, Hulk, Falcao and many more. So it is quite clear that the transfer window has a LONG WAY to go.
Sorry if this has been a bit of a waffley post, just throwing out all my ideas, not really considering that people might read it. Anyway, enjoy your evening. Oh, and good luck to Stoke entering Europe for the first time. Total football anyone?

Wednesday, 27 July 2011


I haven't been able to find too much for tonight to be honest. I missed a few games which have either already been played or are in-play. My policy is though if there is nothing to bet on don't just force a bet out, leave it. So I'll look to tomorrow instead to make sure it doesn't happen again. One thing I am looking at though is over 1.5 multiples, something in preparation for the new season. Bit tough to tell with friendlies and champo qualifiers as there isn't much form, but a treble I'm gonna keep my eye on (probably only paper trade) is over 1.5 goals on the Barca-Munich game, Benfica-Trapzonspor game and the Rosenborg-Plzen game.

If you have any bets on good luck and have a good night.

Note to self (because I don't have any paper)

(Something I just found and I will forget if I don't write it don't write it down and I can't cos I don't have any paper because I'm away from home at the momenttttttt). Quite a while before the next set of games but Irish Prem Div good stats for the goals market now. Shamrock away from home under 2.5 (10 out of 12 times). Bohemians at home over 2.5 (0 out of 11 times). And Galway like to bang in the goals first half (over 0.5 11 out of 12 times) good backtolay option.
That's all, worth a look in the future. Cup fixtures this weekend though.

Frankely Brilliant

Missed the race at the time today, but after watching it 5 or 6 times over since I have decided that Frankel is my favourite ever horse (overtaking Ballabriggs my first National winner this year). He was light years ahead of Canford, it is only a shame that there were not more horses in the race as we might have got better odds on him, but then again maybe not. I decided to go cautiously and just used the 86p fund to have a tinker on Frankel. I also backed Canford to place at odds of 1.17 - not great but seemingly foolproof. In hindsight and in view of what I was saying yesterday, I should have lumped it on both to place at 1.17 and 1.15. But alas, I am always too cautious with racing as I am aware I know little, so probably the best policy. Also - hindsight is stupid and unrealistic.
Tonight I'm still looking at the markets, missed the early bird games but there's still a few good'uns on for later, so I'll update if I find anything interesting. Ta da

Tuesday, 26 July 2011

How could I forget Goodwood?

One last thing before I sleeeeeepp - tomorrow's racing at Goodwood. Now I'm not a horse racing expert, I'm not really even a fan, but I know enough to know that tomorrow's race in the Sussex Stakes is lining up to be a classic. Frankel is a horse which has won me a lot of money, particularly last time out, and has also stunned my rookie self. His performances in the 2000 Guineas Stakes was the best I have ever seen (though admittedly I don't watch much racing), and led to me backing him for loads on his next race (less impressive, almost a shock right at the end, though still won). He is undefeated and brilliant, though apparently the jockey is not all that (top review here). On the other hand is Canford Cliffs, also a mighty horse. He was the winner last year, and took a great victory at Ascot over Goldikova. I have had less of a betting relationship with him, but I can still admire his talent. From what I've heard from the 'pros', this sounds like a race which could be replayed for years and years.

From a betting point of view, none of the experts know who is gonna win, so what chance do I have?! I will probably go with Frankel (very small bet) as I prefer him and it will make the race even more interesting from my POV. One thing's for sure though, one of those 2 will win it (though in a four-horse race that's hardly the prophecy of the century. Especially when Betfair will give you odds of only 1.03 if you dutch the two). Whoever you go with though, good luck and I hope you enjoy the race.

Not a bad evening... And 86p grows

So three out of four bets landed for tonight, not too bad. Crawley Peterborough was 2-4 and lived up to the goalscoring expectations based on last season. Can't wait for the new season to start to resume betting on Peterborough as they won me a lot of money last term. 
Twente stuttered a bit but got the result in the end, without exactly setting the place alight. I said I would trade out after the first goal but the odds had drifted so high in play that I would barely have even been in profit after a trade, so I chanced it and it paid off with them winning 2-0. In the build up to kick off the price for over 1.5 goals drifted past 1.4, which led me to heap a lot on this score, as these odds are crazy for only two goals in a game.
The last selection from Iceland didn't go quite to plan. I managed to back under 3.5 goals in play to recoup some of my losses on the under 2.5 market, but still ended up a little bit down on that one. Luckily due to the poor liquidity of that match on Betfair, I hadn't staked much. 
The big bet for me was Peterborough so I was glad that one came in to make me some nice mooooolah. As for the 86p fund which stood on around £69 at the start of the night, it has now risen to £98.64 thanks largely to Twente. Having a larger amount makes it a lot easier to win more, and I'm just gonna see how high I can get it. Be a nice thing to have on the CV. G'night.

26th July Tips

Tonight I have a number of selections as the Champions League qualifiers continue as well as a feast of friendlies.

I will be looking to the FC Twente vs FC Vaslui match tonight (KO 7.45 BST). Firstly I will take on Twente to win as I think that Vaslui are extremely inferior and with it being the first leg, I fully expect Twente to push on and attempt to get it over and done with ASAP. As I write this I see that Twente have drifted into 1.47 (Betfair) which is a much more appealing price. Reason for this is probably due the the game being played in a neutral stadium after Twente's stadium collapsed, but it isn't gonna put me off.

Also in this game I fully expect there to be goals. I will take the over 1.5 goals option at crazy odds of 1.31 (Betfair), and look to trade out after the first goal.

The second game I will look at is the Crawley Town vs Peterborough match (KO 7.45 BST). Friendlies are tougher to call and I don't bet on them too often as they can be so unpredictable, but I am fairly sure that a bet on over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.7 will come off. Again, if a goal is scored early on, I will look to trade out. Last year the two teams managed 199 goals between them in their leagues, and (this is from memory so forgive me if it's slightly wrong) Peterborough went over 2.5 goals in all games but throughout the season.

Lastly I will look at the Grotta vs Vikingur Olafsvik match (KO 9PM BST). This one I will leave to the last minute because it is a fairly low key game from Iceland, so there has not been much betting on Betfair as yet. I could bet elsewhere, but I would want to trade out after a while so I will see. The position I would take would be under 2.5 goals as these teams appear to repel goals. Grotta have scored 8 goals in 13 games and Vikingur have 16 in 13 games, so hardly prolific stuff. Furthermore, away from home Vikingur have only managed over 2.5 goals once in six times, and at home Grotta only twice in six times. Odds are around 1.93 at the moment.

Good luck all and have a good evening.

Goals market

My favourite thing to bet on in football is the goals market as I often find it to be the most profitable, and I much prefer having to support goals than a particular team. In recent months I have found +1.5 goals to be the best option, as it is fairly likely to happen in any game (around 80% of games in most European leagues). The odds are adjusted accordingly so you only really get odds around 1.2-1.3, not a great return on its own but if you can find 5 or more on a weekend, then (if successful) it can be very rewarding, either doing them as singles or including them in multiples.
Personally I prefer to find games with trends for goals in the first half as well as +1.5 over 90 minutes, and trade out early on after the first goal. For not much risk this can produce a return of around 20%, not bad for less than 45 mins work.

What can I get for 86p...?

...Certainly not a bet on Betfair. Or can I? At the end of the (English) football season I chose to withdraw all my money from Betfair, intending to enjoy my money in the sun whilst eagerly waiting the coming season. Due to my neuroticism however, (needing to cash out in round numbers), I chose to leave the remaining 86 pence in my account and to forget about it. A month or two later, I discovered the pittance and chose to take an extremely hopeful punt on a game I was watching (Brazil women v USA women). At 1-0 Brazil I got good odds to lay them for a liability of 86p and watched as USA equalised and then went on to qualify, giving me a grand total of £5.38.

Now before I continue, I should say that I'm not claiming to be a genius for winning that bet - it was a huge fluke with money that had no other use. But it was an extremely handy fluke. After about 15-20 more bets and much backing and laying, the balance is at £78.19, thanks largely to Lewis Hamilton at the weekend, and Uruguay's success at the Copa America.
At the moment I'm quite enjoying making small bets each day in order to build up my stack. At times I'm only winning £2 or £3 but it is satisfying to know this has all come from 86p. I will post regular updates on how the 86p is getting on.

New Betting Blog

I have decided to start a blog on my betting activity for the coming season. This is mainly because I am running out of room in my little black book and thought it would make sense to document my workings/ramblings online. But also because I thought it would be good to share some of my ideas and to interact with other gamblers, allowing for any advice/thoughts they might have.
I am not a professional gambler, far from it, I just do it in my spare time to raise some extra cash. Mostly however, I do it simply because I enjoy it immensely and get huge satisfaction from researching a result which comes up trumps. I bet mainly on football, but have been known to delve into the lands of Tennis, Formula One, Snooker and horses (on the rare occasion). I am also a keen poker lover, though unfortunately I don't get much time to play these days, and I will also be blogging my thoughts on the WSOP and other poker events around the world. In addition to this I will be talking about my bets, tipping and reviewing betting services and bookmakers. I hope you enjoy this blog, feel free to comment any thoughts.